Passing Game Predictability Working Against Colorado Buffs in the Pac-12

Going into game seven of the 2013 season, the Colorado Buffaloes hope to defend their home turf on Saturday against the University of Arizona Wildcats and their All-American tailback Ka'Deem Carey.

To accomplish that task, the Buffs and their offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren (and head coach Mike MacIntyre, too) must take a long hard look at the utter predictability of their passing game. The passing game has worked well against lesser opponents (Colorado State, Central Arkansas, and Charleston-Southern), but against Pac-12 foes it has been far from effective.

One could argue that Pac-12 teams just play better defense... but one could argue back that Colorado's heavy reliance on outside passes makes it much easier for Pac-12 defensive coordinators to prepare for the Buffaloes.

A small lesson about the playing field in college football:

• Everyone who watches football knows that the field of play between the end zones in 100 yards long.
• Most people DO NOT know that the playing field is more than 50 yards wide. In fact, it is 53 yards and 12 inches wide (160 feet).
• The center of the field between the hash marks is 40 feet wide.
• It is 60 feet from each sideline to the hash marks.
• It is only 27 feet from the sideline to the tops of the numbers.

Key to the graphic:

• Circle with an R inside signifies a completed pass. 
• Null symbol (circle with a slash) signifies an incomplete pass.
• The big R signifies a pass that went for a touchdown.
• The 30 yard line of scrimmage is used simply as a reference.
• Click on the graphic to see an enlarged version.

There is a famous old story in football about how a fan contacted the Dallas Cowboys to let them know that their star running back Tony Dorsett (Heisman Trophy winner and Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee) was tipping off opposing teams as to whether the Cowboys were going to run or pass by not putting his mouth guard in on pass plays.

With that spirit in mind, I am hoping that someone (anyone, please!) can share this with the CU coaches. It would make the likelihood of a Colorado win during conference games much greater.

During the game with Charleston Southern this past Saturday, the Buffs threw 21 passes and completed 15 without any interceptions. That was very good, even against an overmatched opponent.

If one looks at the chart above, it shows:

• The Buffs threw 2 out of every 3 balls within 9 yards of either sideline. 
• 1/3 of the passes went at least to the numbers on the left. 
• 1/3 went to the numbers or further on the right. 
• In addition, all those passes to the outside were thrown within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage.
• Only 3 of the 21 passes were thrown inside the hash marks.
• 3 more passes were thrown on the right hash mark.
• 1 pass was halfway between the right hash mark and the numbers.

 There is exactly 106 feet on the field between the numbers on each sideline. On the contrary, there is only 27 feet between each sideline and the tops of the numbers.

The CU coaches need to ask themselves why 67% of their pass attempts are being force fed into less than 34% of the field width within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage? What makes it worse is that the preferred landing location of Buff passes just happens to be the farthest from the Colorado quarterbacks.

The longer the ball is in the air, the more time that defensive backs have to react to the ball. Worse yet, out patterns where the receiver must stop and wait for the ball gives them little chance to catch the ball with momentum.

For the Buffs to make a serious impact on Pac-12 teams with their passing game, they must learn to spread the ball around to include the rest of the playing field. Pac-12 teams are used to fast paced games in which the ball is thrown all over the field. When Colorado concentrates two-thirds of their pass attempts into two small boxes along the sidelines, it makes it much easier for opposing coaches to devise a plan to defend them.

For the Buffs to succeed against Pac-12 teams, they must learn to throw regularly over the middle. Just look at the one passing touchdown this past week. Paul Richardson caught one ball over the middle just three yards from the line of scrimmage. But he caught the ball with momentum and 61 yards later the Buffs had a touchdown.

Richardson is a great receiver, but the Buffs MUST learn to spread the ball around. While Paul was in the game, 10 out of the 17 passes thrown were directed at him. Good teams with excellent defensive backs will double down on Paul Richardson, and make Liufau find other receivers to beat them.

The 2013 season has been a learning experience for the Colorado football players. One hopes that it has been a learning experience for the CU coaches as well. Here's to hoping that they learn to spread the ball around the field and not to focus more than 50% of their passes on one receiver. If they don't, conference wins in the Pac-12 are going to be hard to come by.