Six games into the 2013 season, and the Colorado Buffaloes football team is 3-3. Back in the glory days, a .500 record halfway through the season would be cause for alarm. Following the 2012 team which went 1-11 (and generally regarded as the worst team in Colorado history), most serious Buff fans are convinced that the football program is heading in the right direction under new head coach Mike MacIntyre.
Unlike last year, the Buffs are finally winning the games that they are "supposed" to win. After three conference losses by wide margins this year (and 8 games last year), the next thing on the agenda of both coaches and players is to be competitive within the conference. The Buffs have lost their last 11 conference games by an average of more than 35 points (as in FIVE touchdowns).
To be fair, the Buffs only lost at home to Utah last year by 7 points, but that just goes to show how bad the other losses were. Two of the losses this year were by 41 points, and the other by "only" 28.
There is a bright side however. The Buffs have played the Pac-12's three strongest offensive teams to start conference play. And the shocking numbers put up on the Buffs during those games have been quite similar to the numbers put up by those teams against teams other than Colorado.
Oregon is averaging 55 points a game in conference play. Oregon State is averaging 48 points. And Arizona State is averaging 49, which includes scoring 62 against USC.
The Buffs next opponent is the University of Arizona. They bring a conference record of 1-2 to Boulder on Saturday. They average just over 26 points per game within the Pac-12. Their passing game ranks only 111th in the country, but their offense does feature All-American running back Ka'Deem Carey. Last season, Carey ran for 1926 yards and 23 touchdowns (including a Pac-12 record of 366 yards and five touchdowns against Colorado).
After last year's 56-31 thrashing in Tucson, the Buffs will look to shut down (or at least contain) Carey and earn their first conference win of the season. To do so, the Buffs will have to force Arizona QB B.J. Denker to do the damage instead of Carey.
On offense, the Buffs must continue on the pace set by new quarterback Sefo Liufau. To win, Liufau must continue to complete nearly 70% of his passes and convert 50% of CU's third downs. Overall, for the Buffs to have a chance they must also win the turnover game, limit dumb penalties, and not be done in by "home run" touchdowns by the Wildcats.
To become a bigger threat on offense, the Buffs and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren must become much less predictable when passing the football. As will be detailed in the next post, the Buff's passing game has made it very easy for opposing defensive coordinators by focusing the vast majority of their passes into two nine yard wide pockets on either side of the field, and leaving the middle 35 yards of the field relatively free of flying footballs.
If the Buffs can play some good run defense and throw the pigskin somewhere besides the sidelines, Colorado has a chance to rack up their first conference win of the season. If they cannot stop the run, and continue to throw in the same manner, another big conference loss is on the horizon.
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