For Colorado Buffs to Succeed, they MUST Learn to Convert on Third Down

As Mike MacIntyre's University of Colorado football team gets ready to head south to Tempe, to face the Arizona State Sun Devils this Saturday night, one thing has become perfectly clear: For this CU team to be successful, they have to show the ability to move the chains.

In the first two games, Colorado's offense managed to convert 12 of 30 third down chances into first downs. That means that 40% of the time that they faced a 3rd down, the result was a first down. Not coincidentally, the Buffs won those first two games.

In the last two games, the Buffs have managed to convert only TWO of THIRTY 3rd down opportunities. Two BIG LOSSES later, it is quite apparent that converting less than 7% of their 3rd downs is no way to have a chance to win a game. Even worse than that, in their last game against the Oregon Ducks, the Buffs converted ZERO of their 15 third down opportunities. That 0-15 set a Colorado record for futility.

The O-fer on third downs not only ended drives for the Buffs, they also ended serious scoring opportunities. No fewer than 10 of the Buff failures to convert on third down occurred in Oregon territory (one was on the 50 yard line). Just look at where these failures to convert in enemy territory happened:

• (1st Quarter) 3rd and 4 from the Oregon 23 -- Two yard pass over the middle from Wood to Spruce was dropped.
• (1st Quarter) 3rd and 10 from the Oregon 16 -- Three yard pass over the middle from Wood to Powell was dropped.
• (1st Quarter) 3rd and 15 from the Oregon 45 -- Powell run up the middle for 4 yards.
• (2nd Quarter) 3rd and GOAL from the Oregon 5 -- Wood pass to the right thrown out of the end zone.
• (2nd Quarter) 3rd and 2 from the Oregon 14 -- Run off a pitch to the left for Goodson results in no gain.
• (2nd Quarter) 3rd and 3 from the 50 yard line -- Incomplete 28 yard pass to Paul Richardson down the right sideline. 
• (3rd Quarter) 3rd and 8 from the Oregon 41 -- Screen pass from Wood knocked down by defensive lineman.
• (3rd Quarter) 3rd and 5 from the Oregon 48 -- Short outside pass to Adkins dropped.
• (3rd Quarter) 3rd and Goal from the Oregon 10 -- Adkins run up the middle for 5 yards.
• (4th Quarter) 3rd and 6 from the Oregon 45 -- 25 yard pass incomplete to Ross down the left sideline.

Unlike the last several years, the Buffs under offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren HAVE shown the ability to make big plays on offense. Connor Wood and his band of receivers have hooked up for some very long scoring (and non-scoring) plays. One of the biggest problems for the Buffs, however, has been their failure to score TD's once they get into RED ZONE.

Of Colorado's nine forays into the RED ZONE thus far this season, only one drive ended with a touchdown. Seven times the Buffs settled for field goals, and one time they turned the ball over on downs.

It has become quite clear that the Buffs can extend the field with Paul Richardson and D.D. Goodson, as both average more than 18 yards per catch. The problem seems to be that the Buffs cannot count on those 7-12 yard catches that result in First Downs, particularly when it comes to converting on third downs.

Honing the skill of playing small-ball can only help with third down conversions, and more than likely it will help with red zone efficiency as well. Having the running game consistently pick up 5 yards at a time would also help immensely. Right now they are only averaging a little over 3 yards per carry, and often on important plays they are stopped for essentially no gain. It's hard to harp on the quarterback when the running game offers no respite.

If the Buffs are to have any chance in Tempe, they must be able to control the ball better by converting on 3rd downs. Taylor Kelly is yet another Pac-12 quarterback who can rip a defense apart if given the chance. One of the best defenses to players like Kelly is an offense that keeps him off the field. Running the ball efficiently and converting on third down are the only ways for the Buffs to avoid being blown out in the desert.