If 3rd down conversions are the key to an offense's ability to hold onto the ball and keep opposing teams from getting their hands on the pigskin, then Mike MacIntyre's decision to promote Sefo Liufau to starting quarterback may very well be one of the best decisions he has made this year.
If one goes back and looks at the stats to the two games against Oregon State and Oregon, one sees that the Buffs converted only 2 of 15 third downs against the Beavers in Corvallis and converted 0 of 15 against the Ducks. Before Sefo Liufau entered the game in Tempe against Arizona State, the Buffs were 0 for 3 against the Sun Devils. That means that before Liufau entered the game, the CU Buffs had converted only 2 of their prior 33 third downs. It doesn't take a PhD in statistics to know that those kinds of numbers would make it difficult for any team to win.
How did Sefo do when thrust into the spotlight when his team was already trailing by 25 points? All things considered, he did marvellous. Liufau consistently led Colorado down the field. He did throw two interceptions and fumbled a snap, leading to more scores by the ASU, but he was extremely efficient at converting 3rd downs into first downs or better.
How good was he at converting? Seven of 10 (70%) of CU's third down tries with Liufau at the helm ended with either a first down or a touchdown. That not only kept the Sun Devil offense off the field, but also managed to give the Buff defense a rest. Rest for the defense has been in short supply since kickoff at Oregon State.
If Colorado and Liufau can drastically cut turnovers and continue to convert 3rd downs at a high rate, the Buffs could literally turn their season around on a dime.
The 1989 Buffs ended the regular season undefeated and played for the national championship against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. That team dominated almost every team they played that year. For the season, that great team converted 53.9% of their 3rd downs. The 1990 team which won the national championship (also against ND) converted 48.9% of their 3rd downs. The 1994 team which featured Heisman Trophy Winner Rashaan Salaam and a plethora of NFL draft picks converted 43.8% of their 3rd downs.
Make no mistake, the ability to hold onto the ball when facing 3rd down is an extremely important statistic. In the first two games of this year, Colorado converted 40% of their 3rd downs and won both games. In the games where the rate of conversion dropped into the single digits, the Buffs were blown out.
The game against undefeated Charleston Southern this week will give Liufau the chance to lead the Buffs from the opening kick. If they convert at over 50% on third down (and win the turnover battle) the team will walk off Folsom Field with a huge win.
The Buff defense under Kent Baer has been much maligned the last three weeks, but it must be remembered that the Colorado offense did nothing with any consistency during that same time. There were a few big plays, of course, but the Buffs failed miserably to hold onto the ball for any length of time. If Sefo Liufau can help the CU offense control the ball and the clock in the upcoming games, the Colorado defense will almost magically get much better.
Football is a game that is fueled by emotion. Nothing fires up the defense like watching from the sideline as their teammates on offense control the ball and the clock and drive for a touchdown. On the other hand, nothing does more to dishearten a defense than watching their offense go three and out over and over again. Or turning over the ball.
If Colorado can turn those two things around and do it on a weekly basis, they will immediately become competitive once again for the first time in many years.
No comments:
Post a Comment