In some ways, 2016 has already been a magical season for long-suffering fans of the Colorado Buffaloes. For the first time in almost a decade, the Buffs know they are going bowling. Pre-season hot-seat head coach Mike MacIntyre is now listed as a top 5 candidate for Coach of the Year.
Better than that even is that these Buffs who were picked to finish last in the Pac-112 South are alone in first place in their division with two out of three of their last games at Folsom Field. This season, for the first time in what seems like forever, the Buffs control their own destiny.
Last season, the Buffs defense made a large improvement under the guidance of new coaches Jim Leavitt (Coordinator and Linebackers) and Joe Tumpkin (Safeties). Buff fans expected the D to be even better this year, and the defense has outperformed even the most generous prognosticators.
After nine games, the Buffs have given up only 155 points, slightly over 17 points a game. But that stat is skewed because 45 of those points were scored by #2 Michigan in Ann Arbor. The main reason the Buffs are in first place in the Pac-12 South it that they are giving up only 16 points per game against conference foes. As the season goes along, though, the D is becoming a dominant force. They have given up only 15 points total in the last two games, against Stanford and UCLA.
In a few hours from now, they will take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson. Arizona has had a horrible year, but they are a historically solid program with eight bowls in the last nine years. That won't happen this year, but the UA players and their head coach Rich Rodriguez are a proud bunch who would love nothing more than to take down a ranked team to help salvage their season.
Meanwhile, the Buffs offense has struggled mightily the last few games. In three of the last four, the Buffs have averaged less than 16 points per game. That's a far cry from the 42+ points per game the Buffs scored earlier in the season.
It will be important to get the offense going tonight, for sure, because the next two opponents, Utah and Washington State, are both ranked in the Top 25.
After many explosive plays earlier in the season, they seem to have dried up for the Buffs. The have had 38 plays of 20 yards or longer (including 13 of more than 40), but only TWO total in the last two games. Both of those were runs by Phillip Lindsay. The Buffs have not had a pass completion longer than 20 yards since the Arizona State game.
Even though the Buffs stand at 7-2, Buff fans are wondering loudly what happened to the explosiveness of the offense. They point out that early in the season that the Buffs were an unknown since they had a new co-offensive coordinator in Darrin Chiaverini and a new commitment to the hurry-up offense. That speed of play seemed surprising to many of the teams on the schedule, and the pace allowed the Buffs to surprise people with big plays over and over again. They even did it to #2 Michigan, the best defense in the country.
Lately, though, some of the better coaches in the league have seemed to figure out how to slow the Buffs big play offense, particularly in the air. David Shaw, Jim Mora and Clay Helton (with help from defensive mastermind Clancy Pendergrast) have quite effectively taken away the big passing game of the Buffs.
Granted, Stanford and the LA schools have the talent in the defensive backfield. But Michigan has a great secondary as well. What the Buffs seem to have lost is their element of surprise that was in their favor early in the season. It seems like they have fallen back to the bad form of being completely predictable in their play-calling.
Also, the offensive co-coordinators Brian Lindgren and Darrin Chiaverini, have been horrible at making in-game adjustments to their game plans. They also have a very questionable habit of going away from what is working. It's like they want the Buffs to be a dominant passing team even when the opponent gears their defense to stopping the pass. Likewise, they choose to run between the tackles against stacked box defenses.
Fortunately, the Buffs SHOULD be able to put numerous big plays on the board tonight against a reeling Arizona team. But the coaches need to be ready, because better teams are ahead and the Buffs cannot waltz to the Pac-12 championship game. USC is rolling right now, and they are just behind the Buffs and win the tiebreaker due to their victory over CU. Utah is also just behind, but the Buffs play them to end the regular season.
Most importantly, the Buffs must strive to be better. We have seen the strides made by the D this year to become one of the best in the country.
But the offense seems to be collapsing with inconsistency at the most important time of the season. The players can't be faulted though. The Buffs offense is really not good enough to be dominant if the opposing defensive coordinator has a good idea what plays the Buffs will call.
I know I am not alone in being able to pretty accurately anticipate what plays Lindgren will call in certain situations. And that's from watching the games once (sometimes twice). The Buffs need to realize that their opponents are studying their game film to find a way to stop them. In the last two games (and three of the last four), it has worked like a charm.
The saving grace has been the DEFENSE. But the Buffs cannot insist that the D does it all if they want to make it to the Pac-12 Championship.
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