The Bruins were undefeated and riding high with a national ranking to match after their first five games to the season. The were scoring points at the clip of almost 46 points per game, while giving up a mere 18.
But that was before running into the conference buzz saws of Oregon and Stanford, both on the road, the last two weeks. During those contests, their offensive output dropped to 12 points per game in the two losses, while the Bruins surrendered 33 points per game.
The Bruins are quite happy to be back home in the Rose Bowl to face Colorado, and they are hoping to get their numbers back to "normal" and another win. A win by UCLA would make them bowl eligible. Future games that will be harder to count on as wins include a tough trip to Tucson to face Arizona before welcoming Washington and the red hot Arizona State Sun Devils to Pasadena. The Bruins finish off the regular season a few miles down the road against bitter rival and rejuvenated USC at the Coliseum. For UCLA, the Colorado game looks to be the only "gimme" left in a conference where gimme's are hard to come by.
The Buffaloes arrived in Los Angeles with four big losses in conference games this year, and a losing streak in the Pac-12 that goes back to early in the 2012 season. Coach Mac and his Buffs know that they have tough row to hoe to pull off the upset.
What do the Buffs have going for them?
Well, for starters, more than 40 players for CU grew up in and played their high school football in the Golden State. Lots of them will have friends and family in the stands and they do not want to look bad in front of their peeps. On top of that, many of them played with and against the players from UCLA, and they share rivalries that go back to high school and before.
The Colorado kickoff returns continue to get better and better each week. Ryan Severson has gotten very close to breaking one for a touchdown and may be able to take one to the house today. As it is, he now stands 2nd in the Pac-12, averaging 28.6 yards per return. Buff fans hope, however, that Severson does not get too many opportunities to break one.
Although CU starting quarterback Sefo Liufau is only a freshman making his third start, he is becoming more aware of the speed of Pac-12 defenders and adjusting his game. Fortunately, Sefo should have his favorite receiver Paul Richardson available for the game. Having a guy who is a threat to take it all the way every time he touches the ball makes life as a quarterback a little less stressful.
The Buffs have the Pac-12's leading tackler in freshman Addison Gillam. Greg Henderson leads the conference in interceptions per game and also passes defended. And Chidera Uzo-Diribe leads the conference and the nation in fumbles forced per game.
What problems do the Buffs face?
The offensive and defensive lines of the Buffaloes have been consistently overpowered within conference play. They have sometimes held their own for a quarter or even close to a half, but then tend to wear down.
The play-calling by CU offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren, especially when throwing the ball, has been VERY predictable and easy to defend. Even with the skills of Richardson, the Buff passing game is not nearly as big a threat as it could be.
The running game, or lack thereof, can most certainly be attributed to the youth of the offensive line. Unfortunately for the Buffs, the most effective running back, Michael Adkins, will miss (most likely) the game due to a concussion suffered last week.
Do the Buffs stand a chance?
Realistically, not much of one. But it certainly would not be the biggest upset ever if they do pull out a win. Colorado would have to play their best game in several years to win this one unless UCLA hurts itself over and over again with turnovers and penalties.
Keys to the Game for Colorado:
- Win the turnover battle
- Convert 3rd downs at 50% (or close) level
- Liufau needs to complete a high percentage of his passes with no interceptions
- Score touchdowns instead of field goals when in the red zone
- Get Paul Richardson the ball, and mix it up to avoid double coverage
- Pressure UCLA QB Brett Hundley
- Limit "home run" plays over 25 yards by the Bruins
- No dumb penalties that kill drives or extend drives for UCLA
Go Buffs!
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