Buffs' Chance to Dance Takes a Smack to the Face at Cal

Colorado marched off to the Bay Area with the chance to cement their place in the field for March Madness. They took care of business at Stanford on Wednesday, but once again to fell prey to physical play like that suffered by standout freshman Josh Scott at the hands of Arizona State. The Buffs responded to Cal's smothering defense by shooting a mere 23% from the floor. The were also outrebounded by 13 and fell by 16 points to the tenacious Bears, 62-46. It was the second largest loss by the Buffs this season, trailing only the 36 point shellacking by Kansas early in the season.

Unless Tad Boyle's team can pull off another four wins in four days at the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas next week, CU's presumed spot at the NCAA's Big Dance seems to be slipping away. The Buffs get to finish the regular season at home this week, but one of those games will be against Oregon, the Pac-12's number one team right now. And to make that challenge even greater, those Oregon Ducks are hell bent on revenge after CU pulled off a one point upset last month in Eugene.

Although fans in Colorado seem convinced that CU will get an at-large selection to the NCAA's, the facts about their record are beginning to loom large. Since the Buffs completed the 2012 portion of the season with a 10-2 record, they have only gone 9-7 in 2013. Unless they successfully hold off the Oregon schools this week, chances are that Boyle's team will be heading to Las Vegas as the Pac-12's #6 seed. Some people might be impressed with that, but none of them are on the NCAA Selection Committee.

Just like last year, the Buffs only chance to get in to the Big Dance might very well be predicated on winning four games in four days to earn the Pac-12's automatic tourney spot. It was only two years ago when the Buffs gathered at their coach's house to watch their presumed selection, only to have the entire field announced without hearing their name called. Unless this year's team goes on a serious winning streak to end the season, the Buffs may have to settle on a consolation trip to the NIT. This is not to say that the Buffs don't deserve a trip to the Big Dance no matter how they end the season, but the selection committee makes wallflowers out of hopefuls every year.

Some point out that Colorado's RPI of 29 is good enough to ensure their selection, but others challenge the relevance of the tool. After all, CU's RPI is 16 points higher than Cal's, yet the final score of yesterday's game showed Cal 16 points better on the court. And last year, the only two Pac-12 teams to get in were Colorado (with the automatic berth) and Arizona, with an at-large berth. With the NCAA's obvious bias against teams west of Kansas, how many teams can the Pac-12 really hope to get into March Madness? The clock is ticking until we all find out.