Midweek Thoughts Regarding Colorado Loss to Arizona Wildcats

Looking back on the game between the Colorado Buffaloes and the Arizona Wildcats, it seems there were some blown opportunities all around. The result of those blown chances was yet another loss to a conference opponent.

I am willing to take some of the blame. After all, I did offer good advice that was not specific enough. Since UA All-American Ka'Deem Carey had rushed for an ungodly 366 yards against CU last year, I had recommended that a key to the game was that the Buffs take Carey out of the game and limit him to 150 or less yards rushing. The Buffs did just that, and only allowed Carey 119 yards.

The problem with the recommendation was that it was too specific to Carey. I should have advised that the Buffs dedicate themselves to shutting down the Wildcat running game, and force them to beat the Buffs with the pasHes. But I didn't, and the Buffs didn't. Arizona put up 405 yards rushing, with 286 coming from folks other than Carey. The biggest hit on the ground came from quarterback B.J. Denker, who averaged almost 13 yards per carry on his way to 192 yards rushing.

On top of the rushing, Denker added 265 yards of passing to earn Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors. UCLA QB Brett Hundley must be licking his chops this week, since the Pac-12 OPW generally goes to the QB facing Colorado during conference play.

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Colorado special teams continued their upward spiral this past week. That does not include the idiotic decision to run a fake punt from their own red zone. Coach MacIntyre gets the blame for that. Kickoff returner Ryan Severson continues to edge ever closer to going the distance. On his two returns Saturday, he averaged 39.5 yards. Punter Darragh O'Neill had three punts downed inside the 20 with no touchbacks, and had none returned. Kicker Will Oliver had only 1 return of his kickoffs.
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True freshman quarterback Sefo Liufau continued to show positive signs while also showing the growing pains of a young quarterback. His completion percentage against the Wildcats was only 53% (17 of 32, 1 interception), compared to the near 70% he showed against ASU and Charleston Southern). On the positive side, Liufau was not sacked. It was the first time a Buff QB has not been sacked since the Arizona game last year.

Liufau also showed his youth and inexperience by throwing the ball out of the endzone on 4th and goal. As the TV announcer pointed out, you gotta give your own guy a chance to catch the ball since the other team is gonna get the ball anyway on 4th down.

WR Paul Richardson again demonstrated himself as one of the best in the Pac-12 and the country. Unfortunately, he sprained an ankle late in the game and is now listed as day to day. He is hoping to be able to play Saturday against UCLA at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.
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The Buff passing game under offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren continues to be predictable, as can be seen by the chart below:

Key to the graphic:

• Black Circle with R inside = completed pass
• Large R = touchdown reception
• Red null symbol (circle with a slash) = incomplete pass 
• Blue null symbol = incomplete pass in the endzone
• Yellow lightning bolt = interception
• 30 yard line as line of scrimmage is used only as a reference
• Click on the graphic to see an enlarged version

Like the game against Charleston Southern, the Buffs had only THREE passes between the hashmarks (and two ON the left hashmarks). 85% of the passes thrown by the Buffs went to the outside 50% of the field, leaving only 15% to the inner half of the field. Note -- the field is 160 feet wide, which means only 5 of 32 passes were thrown within 40 feet of the center of the field.

Considering that the Wildcats had both starting safeties out with injury, one might think that the Buffs would have been better served by attacking the middle.

Another thing to note is that the Buffs were damn lucky that at least one of their passes to the flat was not only almost intercepted but would have been taken to the house for a pic-six. It seems that Pac-12 defensive coordinators are noting (like myself) that the Buffs are very predictable in where they throw the ball. 24 of their 33 passes were thrown within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage, and mostly to the outside part of the field. That's much easier to defend than spreading it across the entire field of play. It also means the ball is spending a lot of time in the air going sideways instead of up the field.

FINAL THOUGHTS:
MacIntyre and the team thought that Arizona was a beatable foe. That may be true, but the same can and is said about Colorado. And right now, CU is more beatable. They have a great deal of young players in starting positions, and that inexperience is being taken advantage of.

The CU offensive and defensive lines are currently losing the battles in the trenches in conference play. That may take a couple years of development to change.

The CU passing game is the most predictable and easiest to defend in the conference. Only the presence of Paul Richardson keeps opposing defenses honest. The Buffs should also do whatever they can to get the ball into the hands of D.D. Goodson -- he is better built for the pounding of reverses and over the middle catches than Richardson.

Passing Game Predictability Working Against Colorado Buffs in the Pac-12

Going into game seven of the 2013 season, the Colorado Buffaloes hope to defend their home turf on Saturday against the University of Arizona Wildcats and their All-American tailback Ka'Deem Carey.

To accomplish that task, the Buffs and their offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren (and head coach Mike MacIntyre, too) must take a long hard look at the utter predictability of their passing game. The passing game has worked well against lesser opponents (Colorado State, Central Arkansas, and Charleston-Southern), but against Pac-12 foes it has been far from effective.

One could argue that Pac-12 teams just play better defense... but one could argue back that Colorado's heavy reliance on outside passes makes it much easier for Pac-12 defensive coordinators to prepare for the Buffaloes.

A small lesson about the playing field in college football:

• Everyone who watches football knows that the field of play between the end zones in 100 yards long.
• Most people DO NOT know that the playing field is more than 50 yards wide. In fact, it is 53 yards and 12 inches wide (160 feet).
• The center of the field between the hash marks is 40 feet wide.
• It is 60 feet from each sideline to the hash marks.
• It is only 27 feet from the sideline to the tops of the numbers.

Key to the graphic:

• Circle with an R inside signifies a completed pass. 
• Null symbol (circle with a slash) signifies an incomplete pass.
• The big R signifies a pass that went for a touchdown.
• The 30 yard line of scrimmage is used simply as a reference.
• Click on the graphic to see an enlarged version.

There is a famous old story in football about how a fan contacted the Dallas Cowboys to let them know that their star running back Tony Dorsett (Heisman Trophy winner and Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee) was tipping off opposing teams as to whether the Cowboys were going to run or pass by not putting his mouth guard in on pass plays.

With that spirit in mind, I am hoping that someone (anyone, please!) can share this with the CU coaches. It would make the likelihood of a Colorado win during conference games much greater.

During the game with Charleston Southern this past Saturday, the Buffs threw 21 passes and completed 15 without any interceptions. That was very good, even against an overmatched opponent.

If one looks at the chart above, it shows:

• The Buffs threw 2 out of every 3 balls within 9 yards of either sideline. 
• 1/3 of the passes went at least to the numbers on the left. 
• 1/3 went to the numbers or further on the right. 
• In addition, all those passes to the outside were thrown within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage.
• Only 3 of the 21 passes were thrown inside the hash marks.
• 3 more passes were thrown on the right hash mark.
• 1 pass was halfway between the right hash mark and the numbers.

 There is exactly 106 feet on the field between the numbers on each sideline. On the contrary, there is only 27 feet between each sideline and the tops of the numbers.

The CU coaches need to ask themselves why 67% of their pass attempts are being force fed into less than 34% of the field width within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage? What makes it worse is that the preferred landing location of Buff passes just happens to be the farthest from the Colorado quarterbacks.

The longer the ball is in the air, the more time that defensive backs have to react to the ball. Worse yet, out patterns where the receiver must stop and wait for the ball gives them little chance to catch the ball with momentum.

For the Buffs to make a serious impact on Pac-12 teams with their passing game, they must learn to spread the ball around to include the rest of the playing field. Pac-12 teams are used to fast paced games in which the ball is thrown all over the field. When Colorado concentrates two-thirds of their pass attempts into two small boxes along the sidelines, it makes it much easier for opposing coaches to devise a plan to defend them.

For the Buffs to succeed against Pac-12 teams, they must learn to throw regularly over the middle. Just look at the one passing touchdown this past week. Paul Richardson caught one ball over the middle just three yards from the line of scrimmage. But he caught the ball with momentum and 61 yards later the Buffs had a touchdown.

Richardson is a great receiver, but the Buffs MUST learn to spread the ball around. While Paul was in the game, 10 out of the 17 passes thrown were directed at him. Good teams with excellent defensive backs will double down on Paul Richardson, and make Liufau find other receivers to beat them.

The 2013 season has been a learning experience for the Colorado football players. One hopes that it has been a learning experience for the CU coaches as well. Here's to hoping that they learn to spread the ball around the field and not to focus more than 50% of their passes on one receiver. If they don't, conference wins in the Pac-12 are going to be hard to come by.

CU Buffs Hope to Slow Down All-American Carey and the Arizona Wildcats

Six games into the 2013 season, and the Colorado Buffaloes football team is 3-3. Back in the glory days, a .500 record halfway through the season would be cause for alarm. Following the 2012 team which went 1-11 (and generally regarded as the worst team in Colorado history), most serious Buff fans are convinced that the football program is heading in the right direction under new head coach Mike MacIntyre.

Unlike last year, the Buffs are finally winning the games that they are "supposed" to win. After three conference losses by wide margins this year (and 8 games last year), the next thing on the agenda of both coaches and players is to be competitive within the conference. The Buffs have lost their last 11 conference games by an average of more than 35 points (as in FIVE touchdowns).

To be fair, the Buffs only lost at home to Utah last year by 7 points, but that just goes to show how bad the other losses were. Two of the losses this year were by 41 points, and the other by "only" 28.

There is a bright side however. The Buffs have played the Pac-12's three strongest offensive teams to start conference play. And the shocking numbers put up on the Buffs during those games have been quite similar to the numbers put up by those teams against teams other than Colorado.

Oregon is averaging 55 points a game in conference play. Oregon State is averaging 48 points. And Arizona State is averaging 49, which includes scoring 62 against USC.

The Buffs next opponent is the University of Arizona. They bring a conference record of 1-2 to Boulder on Saturday. They average just over 26 points per game within the Pac-12. Their passing game ranks only 111th in the country, but their offense does feature All-American running back Ka'Deem Carey. Last season, Carey ran for 1926 yards and 23 touchdowns (including a Pac-12 record of 366 yards and five touchdowns against Colorado).

After last year's 56-31 thrashing in Tucson, the Buffs will look to shut down (or at least contain) Carey and earn their first conference win of the season. To do so, the Buffs will have to force Arizona QB B.J. Denker to do the damage instead of Carey.

On offense, the Buffs must continue on the pace set by new quarterback Sefo Liufau. To win, Liufau must continue to complete nearly 70% of his passes and convert 50% of CU's third downs. Overall, for the Buffs to have a chance they must also win the turnover game, limit dumb penalties, and not be done in by "home run" touchdowns by the Wildcats.

To become a bigger threat on offense, the Buffs and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren must become much less predictable when passing the football. As will be detailed in the next post, the Buff's passing game has made it very easy for opposing defensive coordinators by focusing the vast majority of their passes into two nine yard wide pockets on either side of the field, and leaving the middle 35 yards of the field relatively free of flying footballs.

If the Buffs can play some good run defense and throw the pigskin somewhere besides the sidelines, Colorado has a chance to rack up their first conference win of the season. If they cannot stop the run, and continue to throw in the same manner, another big conference loss is on the horizon.