The Colorado Buffaloes enter their game against Nicholls this weekend on a two-game win streak. They are 45-50 point favorites to extend that winning streak to three games before Oregon comes calling next weekend.
In a season with 13 games and no bye weeks, the game against Nicholls is as close to a gimme as a team that has gone a decade without a winning record has the right to expect. That's right, the last time the Buffs had a winning record for the year was 2005 and Gary Barnett was still the head coach. No winning seasons for Dan Hawkins or Jon Embree, and MacIntyre's first two rebuilding seasons also fell short.
That brings us to 2015. The Buffs are 2-1 and should be 3-1 in about 30 hours. After that, the reality of playing in the "Conference of Champions" kicks in. Seven of nine of the Buffs' Pac-12 opponents will either be ranked or very close. In four years in their new conference, the Buffs have only managed to win 4 games against Pac-12 foes. That has to change for the Buffs to become an annual bowl team once again.
The Buffs will win against Nicholls. The question is: How smart will they be in achieving that goal and preparing for Pac-12 play?
Injuries are a reality for every football team. The Buffs entered last week's game against CSU with FOUR running backs in rotation to carry the ball and help protect the quarterback. By the end of the very hard-hitting game, they were down to one (Christian Powell) and he was doing a lot of limping.
The depth chart this week lists both Michael Adkins and Patrick Carr as injured. Wide Receiver Donovan Lee has been moved to running back this week to give the team more depth. He joins redshirt freshman Kyle Evans behind Powell and a gimpy Phillip Lindsay.
QB Sefo Liufau took a hit to the shoulder and suffered a slight separation that would have sidelined 99% of other quarterbacks. Instead, he re-entered the game and led the Buffs to a win from 14 points down.
Will the Buffs need their tough-as-nails QB to win against Nicholls? The answer is a resounding NO!
Sefo wants to play. Of course he does. He's a competitor. But fans and coaches want him to be fully healthy for the start of Pac-12 play next weekend. For the Buffs to win a few conference games and become bowl eligible, the Buffs are going to need to keep Sefo healthy.
Jordan Gehrke has thrown ZERO passes this year, and only 44 in his career as a backup to Liufau. He has only completed 45.5% of his passes, and his yards per attempt is a paltry 3.9 (Sefo's YPA last year was 6.4, and this year it is 5.9). Gehrke needs work with the #1 offense so that if he is called into action he is ready to actually run the plays that CU calls.
Gehrke has one start in his career. Last season at Oregon, he was thrown to the wolves. In the first half of play, he was 9-18-0 for 64 yards. That's 3.55 yards per attempt passing. He was also sacked twice. Liufau came in to play the 2nd half despite suffering from concussion symptoms and averaged only 2.9 yards per attempt.
Gehrke needs the work and the coaches need to let him use the full playbook. He cannot just hand off the ball 60 times, even though the Buffs would win even if they do not throw a single pass. Gehrke and third stringer Cade Apsay need to run the Buff offense and learn what it is like to play in a game the Buffs will win.
Everybody who is dinged up should sit out the Nicholls game.
All these guys are very competitive and want to play. We understand. We also know that playing a team of Nicholls level gives the guys a chance to "pad their stats" against a lesser opponent.
But, after a decade of losing, the only stat the Buffs should be worried about is wins. They are all that matters now. If the Buffs want to go bowling at the end of this season, they have to be smart about who they risk. 3-1 to start the season means nothing if they do not put some conference wins on the table. And that means keeping their key players healthy and getting their injured guys time to recuperate.
The coaches need to do what is best for the team for the entire season.
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