Friday the 13th: The Wonderful, Crazy World of College Football

Some folks have an odd fear of Friday the 13th. Don't count me in there because I love it. Two coaches who will likely look back in dread on the day are Clemson HC Dabo Swinney and Washington State head coach Mike Leach. Both had excellent seasons hit massive road-bumps last night.

Defending national champion and current #2 Clemson traveled to Syracuse, New York and lost a close one 27-24 to the same Orange who had lost earlier in the season to Middle Tennessee State. Really.

Cal entered the game against Washington State with three losses already on their resume. But those losses were to USC, Washington, and Oregon. Nothing to be ashamed about. But most folks figured their game Washington State would be another loss to a Top 10 team.

Somebody forgot to tell the Bears, and they shellacked the #8 Cougars by a score of 37-3. It was some welcome good news to the Bay Area where wildfires have killed more than 34 with hundreds missing and more than 5000 buildings have been lost. Some fans in the stands wore masks due to the visible smoke.

There were only two FBS games last night, and the Top 10 team in both lost. Clemson was favored by 24 points. Washington State was a 17 point favorite. Oh well, now we know why they play the games.

Since these games were played on a Friday, it means that FOUR Top 10 teams have lost in the last week. Oklahoma and Michigan lost last Saturday.

Thank goodness for Friday the 13th and the wonderful, crazy world of college football.

Are the Colorado Buffaloes Capable of a Turnaround?

Colorado had a magical season last year. They went from worst to first and played in the Pac-12 Championship game. After a decade of losing records, the 10-2 regular season looked like it represented the long sought rejuvenation of Colorado Buffaloes football.

Unfortunately, looked like and reality are quite often not the same thing. Since that time, the Buffs have gone 3-5, eerily similar to much of the last decade. And if you believe in such things, it's almost as if Mike MacIntyre made a deal with the devil but forgot to ask for something more long-lasting than just wanting to win 10 games. Since then, the devil has been in the details. And the Buffaloes have become a team which loses more often than not once again.

Strangely enough, as if cursed, CU can't seem to get a good complete game from the entire team. For most of the games this year, the D has come through and exceeded expectations. That came to a screeching halt against Arizona as an 18 year old backup quarterback rewrote the NCAA record books against Colorado.

By the same token, an offense that has woefully under-performed this year finally woke up against Arizona. Of course, coming into the game the Wildcats were a lower tier Pac-12 team whose coach was riding a seat that was getting hotter by the game. Still, it was nice to finally see the Buffs finally put some serious points on the board  against Pac-12 competition.

Some might ague that Colorado's offensive explosion and game-clock dominance was misleading. Long, time-consuming drives are usually great... unless you already down by two touchdowns and your defense is completely unable to stop the other team. Taking seven minutes and 19 plays to score is great and demoralizing to the other team if you are ahead. When you are behind, all it does is shorten the time available for you to catch up. Colorado may tell themselves that they didn't really lose, but that the clock just ran out on them. Sadly, they were the ones running out the clock for the most part.

The only sadder, more under-performing team in the Pac-12 right now is Oregon State. Fortunately (or unfortunately), the two bottom dwellers meet this week to determine who really is the worst team in the conference. The odds-makers have made the Buffaloes double digit favorites, even though the game will be played in Corvallis. Let's hope they get it right this week.

Another loss for Colorado would lead to an implosion as players start (or finish) checking out emotionally and fans start getting themselves ready for ski and snowboard season. The driving snow outside right now seems to be portending which of those will happen.

The magic of a worst to first season like 2016 can be rendered unimaginable if it is followed by a first to worst season. Even more so if it's a worst-first-worst sandwich. Is it too late? Is Mike MacIntyre willing or able to make drastic changes to shake up his team? We'll see. 

But folks should not get overexcited if the Buffaloes win at Oregon State. It's the last game the Buffaloes will be favored in.



 

Arizona Preview and Commentary on Colorado Football After the UCLA Loss

It's been a busy week without the normal time available for writing, but one in which my comments were directed at other sites. What follows is some of what was written as commentary on other sites. Some people agreed with me passionately, while others took exception to my attempts at insight.

 Oct. 2

After the loss to UCLA, head coach Mike MacIntyre once again stated that this Buffaloes team would “win a lot of games” this year. Since we’re five games in already, I’m looking for a little context on what qualifies as “a lot of games” when Mac talks.

Is “a lot” 10 games? Eight games? Six games? Or What?

In MacIntyre’s seven full seasons as a head coach, he’s had TWO winning seasons and FIVE losing seasons. More telling than the 2 vs 5 is the drastic differences each represents. It’s really either feast or famine.

In the two winning seasons (one each at CU and San Jose State), Mac has a record of 20-6. In the five losing seasons, Mac has gone 16-46. For the fellow math geeks out there, that means the losing seasons averaged roughly 3-9 (3.2-9.2).

It’s even more glaring when looking at conference games. In the two winning seasons, Mac’s teams went 13-2 during conference games. In the five losing seasons, Mac’s teams went 5-37 against conference foes.

Although the Buffs still have a winning record so far this season at 3-2, they are 0-2 in the Pac-12. With arguably the two weakest teams this year on tap the next two weeks, one wonders if Mac and staff will have the guys ready to play.

For most of us fans, time and games are running out if the goal is to win “a lot” of games this year.

Oct. 3

Mike MacIntyre’s future depends upon this game against Arizona perhaps more than any other since he arrived in Boulder. Arizona is a horrible Pac-12 road team the last several years. Last year they were 0-4 and outscored in the Pac on the road 192-71. In 2015 they were outscored 225-125 on road with a 1-4 record.

The last time Arizona won on the road in the Pac-12 was when they beat Colorado in 2015.

Colorado has looked pretty uninterested and uninspired this year so far. That falls on MacIntyre and the coaches. If they lose this game at home, the rest of the season will be lost. The fans and the players will stop caring.

Colorado needs to win the game and win big to get this season salvaged. If they struggle at home to a clearly inferior team, the rest of the Pac-12 schedule looks like murderer’s row in comparison.

If the Buffs lose, it will be clear that MacIntyre has lost the faith of his team, and that will not likely be restored. The countdown to reality is on.

Stuart at CU at the Game took the prior comment as an indication that I thought MacIntyre would or should be fired if the Buffaloes lost this week to Arizona. That led to the following exchange.

Oct. 4 - Me

Nobody does or should think MacIntyre will be fired. Why would he be fired? Some may be hoping that he wins enough games to be lured away back to his part of the country, and some are hoping he turns things around and gets the Buffs back in the annual bowl extravaganzas year after year. 

Most fans don’t have the same warm fuzzy feelings about the offensive play-caller. BL did a good job against UCLA. But the games in which his play-calling outsmarted a good defense are pretty much non-existent. One good game doesn’t get him off the hook for the years of head-scratching play calls.

The Pac-12 is a tough league to play in, especially on the road. It’s not really a surprise that a struggling UCLA (or any other Pac-12 team) is tough to beat on their home turf.

That said, the Buffs need to take advantage of every opportunity they have. They only play 12 games (and a bowl if they earn it and yearn for it). The key to being a good team is being UP for every game, which is something they have not done this year.

Some of us are concerned that a third straight loss, especially to a horrible road team like Arizona, would portend a likely collapse this season. We are all hoping for an inspired CU team to show up and finally live up to pre-season expectations. If not, we have a mostly lost decade to look back upon and prepare us for our feelings of despair about losing football.

The truth may be that the Buffs are not as good as advertised. And since Mac won’t let anyone watch his practices, he takes the blame when he makes statements that are clearly not true about how good, prepared, and dominating his team will be.

The best coaches I have watched over too many decades had certain traits in common: They voluntarily took the blame when their players were not prepared because it’s why they get paid; and they protected their kids from having blame pushed onto them. These are not NFL players, they are college kids.

If some of us seem too critical of MacIntyre, maybe it’s because we believe that is where the blame should go. Everyone in the press knows Mac doesn’t handle criticism well… but, hey, we’re football fans, not his therapist. He can pay them to work on his feelings, and he can afford it.

Stuart

“Nobody does or should think MacIntyre will be fired. Why would he be fired?”
Your previous post opened with … “Mike MacIntyre’s future depends upon this game against Arizona perhaps more than any other since he arrived in Boulder”.
Not sure how else to read that …

Me

I certainly hope that Mac’s future will go many more years. The implication is that if the Buffaloes lose to Arizona it will signal a downturn from the gains the program made last year. And that if the CU goes on to have a dismal ending to the 2017 it will be hard for Mac to reclaim the faith of the fans and the players.

MacIntyre made a national name for himself last year and was rewarded with National Coach of the Year honors from numerous sources. Considering the general disregard for what Colorado would do THIS year from the media is pretty telling. So far, it seems the prognosticators were more right than MacIntyre about how good the Buffaloes would be, especially the O-line and scoring.

In football, there are watershed moments that portend the future. Before the UCLA game I wrote how a big win or loss (point wise) would be a serious indicator but that a close win or loss like they had would put the pressure on the next two games with Arizona and Oregon State to set the tone for the rest of the year.

Colorado MUST beat Arizona at Folsom if they want to salvage this season. If not, they have a good chance of ending up near the bottom of the Pac-12 yet again. If they don’t beat Arizona, even teams like Oregon State will believe that they can beat Colorado, especially playing at home.

The quote you gave of mine above covers a multi-year period since his arrival in Boulder. I’m just pointing out that trends in football tend to go on for several seasons. The Buffs went from being blown out every game to getting close but still losing. Then they finally started to win the close ones and win some big last year in Pac-12 play. If they start moving the other direction, as a pendulum always does sooner or later, it will be hard to change that momentum.

I’ve written many times in praise of MacIntyre (check my blog), but I feel that when criticism is warranted it should be given. If you want to be the highest paid state employee then you should expect folks to have high expectations. He can’t expect only accolades.

The Colorado Buffaloes will take the field against the Arizona Wildcats in a little over 15 hours. These are my thoughts as to the importance of this game.

Colorado and Mike MacIntyre went 10-2 last year in the regular season. It was the first winning record in a decade. Since that time, the have played in the Pac-12 Championship game, a bowl game and the first five games of this season.

Against top notch opponents to end the season last year, the Buffs were beaten handily and did not look good doing it. In the first three games this season, the Buffaloes did manage to win but looked uninspired and unimpressive in their three non-conference games.

In the first two conference games this year, the Buffaloes have been beaten handily at home by Washington and lost on the road to a reeling UCLA team with one of the worst defenses in the country. The Bruins had been giving up around 45 points per game, and the Buffaloes managed to score around half that amount.

Colorado did seem to be emotionally invested the entire game against UCLA for the first time since last season, but still lost.

Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez, like Jim Mora at UCLA, finds himself on the coaches hot-seat lists because of poor play by his team. Mora was able to inspire his team to a big win over Colorado. It remains to be seen whether RichRod can do the same thing this week with the Wildcats.

If the Buffaloes can come out and play as a team which deserves to be in the conversation for a Top 25 team and win handily at home against Arizona, it could turn around a season of struggle. A big win could set them up for better things in the second half of the season. 

A win would bring them to 4-2, with a game against Pac-12 doormat Oregon State next week. Another win there and the Buffs would be one win from qualifying for a bowl.

If the Buffaloes come out flat and emotionless like most of the prior seven games, an inspired Arizona could come in and pull off the upset. If that happens, the Buffaloes would fall to 3-3 with the meat of the Pac-12 schedule still ahead of them. A loss here would put a severe hit on their desire to go to a bowl for a second consecutive year.

I described last week's tussle as a "bellwether game" with a big win or loss. The close loss put the Buffs in the position that their backs are now firmly against the wall. Only a win will get them where they want to be. A loss will relegate them to the lower levels of the Pac-12.

It's the first game of October. Will the Buffaloes rise to the occasion to save their season or not?